Somalia vs Ethiopia: Diplomatic war at the UN Council

Tensions have escalated between Somalia and Ethiopia, with a new accusation full of meaning. During his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre threw a spanner in the works by denouncing Addis Ababa's attempts to annex Somali territories. The sticking point? Maritime access via Somaliland, which Ethiopia wants to secure at all costs. Mogadishu is crying foul and sees it as an illegal maneuver.

This toxic climate, conducive to escalation, comes at the worst possible time for the Horn of Africa region. Somalia accuses Ethiopia of playing with fire, stoking tensions that only benefit terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab. According to the Prime Minister, these Ethiopian provocations undermine efforts for peace and cohesion in Somalia. Barre’s strong speech aimed to reiterate that Somali sovereignty is not negotiable, and that any attempt at interference will be fought diplomatically and militarily, if necessary.

Historical background: the Somaliland puzzle

One of the roots of the current conflict lies in the complex situation of Somaliland, a de facto autonomous region still claimed by Somalia. This territory, located in the north of Somalia, has signed an agreement with Ethiopia to guarantee the latter direct access to the Red Sea. For Addis Ababa, deprived of a seafront since 1993, this agreement is strategic. For Mogadishu, on the other hand, it is nothing more and nothing less than a flagrant violation of its territorial integrity.

Ethiopia in action?

Under Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has made numerous efforts to secure a prominent place on the Horn of Africa economic stage. However, these maneuvers raise the idea that Addis Ababa has expansionist designs on certain strategic regions. The agreement with Somaliland crystallizes tensions, and suggests that Ethiopia, under the cover of economic interests, could redraw the borders of the region.

A multifaceted crisis

This crisis is not just a territorial dispute. It reveals a deeper rivalry between two neighbors vying for influence in a volatile region. In the background, regional powers such as the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are watching closely, each with its own interests in the region. The crisis could also push international actors, including the United Nations, to intervene to prevent a wider conflagration.

What future for the region?

The tension between Somalia and Ethiopia comes at a time when both countries are already weakened by internal conflicts and economic difficulties. The Horn of Africa region, crucial to global maritime trade, risks entering a new phase of instability. Bilateral relations between these two African giants appear irreversibly damaged, unless an external actor imposes serious mediation.