Guinea-Bissau: The electoral commission abandons the publication of the presidential election results

A decision that increases political uncertainty

In Guinea-Bissau, the political situation continues to deteriorate following the military intervention and the suspension of the electoral process. Less than a week after the military takeover, the National Electoral Commission (CEN) broke its silence by holding a press conference on Tuesday, December 2nd, to announce that it would ultimately not release any results from the presidential election. This declaration marks a major turning point, as it confirms that the country is entering a phase of institutional deadlock where the outcome of the vote, seen as a crucial step in stabilizing a fragmented political landscape, will not be known in the immediate future.

A break with the demands of ECOWAS, the opposition and civil society

This decision comes even as ECOWAS, present in Bissau the previous day, had formally requested the publication of the results to preserve electoral transparency and avoid a dangerous political vacuum. The opposition, along with several civil society organizations, had insisted on the need to publish the figures to respect voters' rights and prevent any manipulation of the process. By refusing to comply, the National Electoral Commission (CEN) is directly contradicting regional and national expectations, which risks fueling criticism of its ability to guarantee the integrity of the election.

The election was interrupted amid rising tensions.

The military intervention, which abruptly halted the vote counting process, is justified by the armed forces as a response to "serious irregularities" and risks of political destabilization. However, no detailed evidence has been made public, and the lack of results prevents any verification of the allegations. The country, accustomed to cycles of instability marked by coups, the dissolution of institutions, and clashes between rival powers, finds itself once again plunged into a period of uncertainty where traditional mechanisms of institutional regulation appear weakened.

An electoral commission under pressure and losing capacity

According to its officials, the Electoral Commission no longer has the necessary technical or security conditions to certify results that, they argue, could contribute to increased political tensions. The CEN claims it wants to avoid publishing incomplete or disputed data, maintaining that its primary role is to preserve national stability. However, in a country where institutions have often been accused of bias, this justification does not convince all observers, who fear that the lack of transparency will exacerbate the already deep distrust among political actors.

ECOWAS faces a new regional challenge

For ECOWAS, this crisis adds to a series of political and military tensions that have been shaking West Africa for several years . The organization finds itself having to navigate between the desire to impose the publication of the results, in accordance with the democratic principles it upholds, and the need to avoid a direct confrontation with the military authorities, who could become even more entrenched. Guinea-Bissau thus becomes a new test for the credibility of the regional organization, which is seeking to maintain a consistent stance in the face of the increasing number of interrupted or contested political transitions.

A political transition without a clear horizon

For the time being, no date has been set for the resumption of the electoral process or for a return to constitutional order. National political actors find themselves in a state of prolonged uncertainty, while the population anxiously observes a new cycle of uncertainty in a country where institutional fragility is a recurring problem. Without results, without a timetable, and without even a minimal political consensus, Guinea-Bissau is entering a phase of instability whose contours remain difficult to predict, and which will require strong involvement from regional actors to prevent a further deterioration of the situation.